Date-stamped : 28 Jan94 - 10:40 Atherton can pass his acid tour test England leave for the Caribbean needing an open mind if they are to upset the odds. The West Indies have three clear weaknesses Christopher Martin-Jenkins applies a douche of cold reality to the eager optimism accompanying the tourists. It is a quarter of a century since England won a Test series against the West Indies and the odds are clearly against the Wisden Trophy changing hands during the next three months. After all, this time last year the West Indies were in the process of defeating Australia in Australia. Last summer, on home ground, England lost 4-1 to more or less the same Australian team. It is true that England, who leave for the West Indies tomorrow, won the last game, at the Oval, with a new captain proclaiming a new era: but England beat Australia at the Oval in 1985, too, and proceeded to lose all five Tests in the Caribbean in the winter which followed. I mention these facts to apply a douche of cold reality to the eager optimism which accompanies every departing touring team, not least the well-prepared unit flying out under Mike Atherton for an initial week of practice in Antigua. Their quest, however, is by no means hopeless and the Ladbrokes odds of 4-1 against a drawn series (even those of 10-1 against England) seem more attractive than those of 2-9 on a West Indies win. Albeit largely through the masterly batting of Graham Gooch, which on this tour they must do without, England have recently found a way of beating the West Indies. The three successes against them since Mike Denness's side achieved a halved rubber 20 years ago have all come in the last two series. Between Port of Spain 1974 and Sabina Park 1990, West Indies beat England 20 times without suffering a reverse themselves: in the last 10 Tests the score is 4-3. Moreover the impressively positive cricket of the A team so far in South Africa can only have added to the high morale of the party. The problem for the senior side is the still very considerable strength of the West Indies. Their selectors, fearful of a successful team growing old together, bravely recognised the need for change after England had won at the Oval in 1990 to share the series. Viv Richards, Gordon Gree- nidge and Jeff Dujon, the first one of the game's immortals, the other two cricketers of exceptional brilliance, were all dis- carded against their will. In their absence a new team has quickly found its feet under Richie Richardson, still immensely strong in fast bowling and with batting fortified by the swift emergence of Brian Lara, who is already sixth in the Coopers and Lybrand world ratings. Desmond Haynes is four places above him, second only to the absent Gooch, and you have to drop to No 13 to find Robin Smith, the first of Atherton's men on the list. Ather- ton himself is rated 17th, Stewart 21st. The bowling differences are equally significant: Curtly Ambrose is second, Ian Bishop, who will want to play against England if his doctors allow it, is fifth, Winston Benjamin eighth and Courtney Walsh 16th. Angus Fraser, as the disc jockeys put it, has reappeared at No 9, but you have to drop to 21 to find the next touring bowler, Phil Tufnell. Nevertheless the current West Indian team have three clearly identifiable weaknesses judged by the highest standards, so they are not invincible. Haynes himself had a poor series in Australia last winter before recovering his form magnificently against Pakistan at home, but his partner Phil Simmons, gifted and destructive player though he is, gives new-ball bowlers more of a chance than a genuine Test opener should. Like England, West Indies could do with a steady, accumulating left-hander in this position. Clayton Lambert, despite a first-class average of 73 last season for Guyana, seems to have been rejected and he missed his chance last week in South Africa to make a point. (With Lara, Keith Arthurton and possibly also Jimmy Adams, there is no short- age of left-handers down the order.) The West Indies have also been handicapped since rejecting Dujon by not having a wicketkeeper who contributes serious Test runs. David Williams was given a fair run, then discarded. Junior Murray, his successor, is no rabbit - his first-class career ave- rage is 22 and he has made a first-class hundred, but he has so far looked too frail to be a Test No 7, let alone six. Therefore the West Indies share England's problem of needing to play six batsmen. The difference, however, is that Carl Hooper has deve- loped his off-spin to the extent where he has become a genuine Test all-rounder. (Thank you, county cricket, for your customary assistance). The most crucial area of doubt about West Indian strength is, of course, in fast bowling. Unless Bishop makes an earlier recovery than is expected, they look like being a very good, rather than a great attack. They should not be under-esti- mated, because while Walsh, Anderson Cummins and Winston and Kenneth Benjamin may be unlikely Test matchwinners in their own right, as a pack they can be formidable. Nevertheless, if Ambrose should be injured, as he was before the first Test on the last tour, they would become vulnerable in this area of traditionally great strength. As a golfer must assume that his opponent will hole the 18 foot putt, so England cannot afford to hope that Ambrose will be anything less than the best fast bowler in the world. If he reads the ratings he will find, in fact, that he is 12 points below Waqar Younis, but apart from a short and soggy tour to Sri Lanka, Ambrose has had a good rest after an intensive period of cricket. He, alone, makes the West Indies firm favou- rites to win the series. In the end, therefore, the outcome will be determined by two major factors: whether England can bowl well enough to undermine the undoubted batting strength of the West Indies - the fact that Richie Richardson has been ordered to rest for another month must give the touring team an initial pyschological advantage - and how well the batsmen come to terms with the inevitable hostility of the fast bowling. It is hard to believe that the acid test of the tour's success will not be Atherton's own ability or other- wise to withstand the barrage he knows he will receive as both captain and opening batsman. His aggregate of 79 in nine innings at 8.77 against the West Indies in 1991 does not encourage; but the ball should move about less in the Caribbean and scores of 72, 28, 50 and 42 after taking on the captaincy at Edgbaston last summer indicate that his own batting will be motivated rather than overawed by responsibility. Given one umpire from the new National Grid International Panel, Atherton and the other bats- men must hope for more protection from an overdose of short- pitched bowling than they received on the last tour, especially if the referees, Sunil Gavaskar and John Reid, are vigilant. Nor should the over-rate be unfairly slowed down as it was last time by the West Indies in Trinidad and England in Barbados. With Richardson and Atherton in charge I hope and believe that we can look forward to a series free from any rancour. Both can be ex- pected to play their cricket hard but fairly and with the civili- ties which are a traditional and essential part of the game firmly and naturally applied. England's initial plan will be for Stewart to revert to the role of opener and stand-by wicketkeeper with Robin Smith as the 'banker' at No 4. These are two of five survivors - the others are Nasser Hussain, Devon Malcolm and Angus Fraser - from the 1990 tour. Graeme Hick will be used as an off-spinner provided he justifies his wish to bat at No 3. I hope that Graham Thorpe will go in at five, because his left-handed- ness should help to break the line of the bowlers and because his batting both at Trent Bridge and at Edgbaston against Australia confirmed his temperament and ability. This would leave Hussain, Matthew Maynard and Mark Ramprakash fighting for one place. What- ever the combination, England should be exceptionally smart in the field, with Jack Russell as the focal point. This will lift bowlers who are not capable of rising above the safe in the field and who, whatever the personnel, will represent a tail to the batting. It will be important for these tailenders to bat above their ability, but even more crucial for them to sweep away the West Indian tail efficiently. Devon Malcolm, Angus Fraser and either Steve Watkin or Andrew Caddick will no doubt get the first opportunities when the first Test starts on Feb 19 augmented, we must hope, by Tufnell on top of his form. Chris Lewis and Alan Igglesden will have other ideas and Atherton and Keith Fletcher must bear in mind - as Ian Salisbury certainly will - that the one Test which the West Indies lost in Australia last winter was at Melbourne, where Shane Warne took seven for 52 in the second innings. While setting out to play disciplined cricket, England's approach to this tour must, above all, be open-minded. (Thanks: The Daily Telegraph) Contributed by Vicky (VIGNESWA@*umass.edu)