Arriving with sacks like four differently shaped versions of Father Christmas, David Graveney, Graham Gooch, Mike Gatting and Alec Stewart get together at a London hotel this evening to pick a side for the third Test at Old Trafford, starting next Thursday.
Logical thinking is required if England are to find the right combination to defeat South Africa. Unless the tables are turned at once, another major series will be effectively lost because, assuming improved weather, there will be a result within five days for sure. The last two Manchester Tests have been over comfortably inside five days.
England's batting has failed lamentably in two of their last three games but it is too early for the selectors to change their mind about the top six they originally selected for the match in between, at Edgbaston. Unfortunately, although Mark Butcher is expected to be fit, Nasser Hussain has sustained a hamstring injury. Time will tell if this opens a path back for Hick.
What the selectors must and clearly will not do is to give any suggestion of panic. The simplest and best solution is probably for them to revert to the strategy which might have brought a victory in the first Test at Edgbaston had it not been for rain on the final day.
Assuming his bruised thumb does not inhibit him in a club match in the Surrey Championship today and an AXA match tomorrow, Butcher will surely return in place of Steve James, who was not out of his depth at Lord's. Darren Gough, who plays for Yorkshire against Cambridge University over the next three days, should take over again from Dean Headley.
That will give England two things they missed at Lord's, a genuine fast bowler and a left-handed opening batsman to disrupt the line of Allan Donald and Shaun Pollock. Probably the only other position which the selectors ought to be considering is that of the second all-rounder (Stewart being the first) at No 7. Mark Ealham has had two modest Test matches and, sturdy cricketer that he is, he may just fall short of being a genuine Test-class cricketer in either role.
The alternatives are several. I would narrow it down to Ben Hollioake and the unconsidered Graham Rose but cases could be made, too, for Mark Alleyne, another late developer and, if the preference is for a batsman who only bowls a bit, for Adam Hollioake or the powerful 19-year-old Lancastrian, Andrew Flintoff.
This is where it becomes essential to consider the likely conditions at Old Trafford. Pitches there this season have favoured seam bowling, as Peter Martin amply demonstrated with some constantly threatening bowling only two days ago. The moisture has had most do to with that and it will have to become hot and dry quite soon for the pitch to become one of those hard Manchester surfaces which tend to suit quick bowlers and wrist spinners. On the other hand, England must recall how quickly conditions changed there once the sun came out last year.
The case for a batting all-rounder, or even a seventh specialist batsman, in place of Ealham is more than just a passing fancy: when England hit back against the West Indies at Old Trafford in 1995 after going 2-1 behind at Edgbaston, they did so with only three bowlers taking wickets: Dominic Cork, Angus Fraser and Mike Watkinson. (Only those with remarkable memories would get the other two bowlers used by England in that game.*)
There was nothing wrong with the theoretical balance at Lord's, but the bowling needed more variety and the top order required at least one more left-hander. It was disappointing that Mark Ramprakash's ability as an off-spinner was never explored; he is underestimated by David Lloyd, the coach, and Stewart, despite his three wickets in the Barbados Test in February.
The return of Gough and Butcher will help but a left-arm bowler would be handy, too, and the party announced tomorrow might easily include two of them: Giles and Alan Mullally, who is back this season to the sort of form which earned him nine successive Tests in 1996/7. He took 28 wickets at 33 but never more than three in an innings. If he is picked again now, it will be partly to create rough for Robert Croft, although Paul Adams might enjoy that, too.
Mullally was in a winning side only in his first game he played, whereas the deposed Caddick has played in all England's wins over the last two years - six of them, against India, New Zealand, Australia and the West Indies - and has taken five wickets in an innings three times in the last 12 months. He has also been dropped thrice in that time. His best is better than Headley's, his worst worse. Chris Silverwood and Ed Giddins continue to be lively contenders.
If a second specialist spinner is picked this time it will surely be Giles, the leading bowler on the A tour of Sri Lanka. He has done no more work than any other finger spinner in the unsettled weather so far this summer but 14 wickets from 124 overs at a cost of 18 runs each is promising. Like Croft, he bats usefully but by the highest standards he is slow in the field. A side with Croft, Giles and Angus Fraser would have at least three men slower than any of the South Africans.
Weighing up all of this, my 12 would be: Atherton, Butcher, Hussain (Hick), Thorpe, Stewart, Ramprakash, Ben Hollioake, Cork, Croft, Giles, Gough and Fraser, leaving a final choice, according to pitch and weather, between Giles and Hollioake.
* Craig White and John Emburey.