Events in between have been thoroughly deflating, the Texaco Trophy and the delusory triumph at Edgbaston apart, but if Atherton were the kind of man capable of fooling him- self, he would be able to look back on nine international match- es against Australia this season and say that England won five of them.
He is more realistic than that. England's batting too often lacked craft and graft; the bowling was inconsistent; catches were dropped at crucial stages of the decisive games. Atherton alone knows whether he could stand the strain if such failings were repeated in the West Indies after Christmas. There is a realistic chance of a successful campaign and, because he has improved as a captain on the field and has the respect and loyalty of his players, the chance would be marginally greater if he decides to soldier on, after a few days with his fishing rod to stand and think.
Alec Stewart and Nasser Hussain are the only serious alternatives. Adam Hollioake will no doubt be appointed as captain for the one-day tournament in Sharjah in Decem- ber, which will mark the start of the long-term planning for the 1999 World Cup, but the West Indies is not the place to blood a Test captain, especially one who has never played there. Had Hollioake made a more significant contribution to the victory at the Oval, or were he primarily a bowler, it might be different. But the West Indians have proved ruthless in the past, singling out batting captains for particularly hostile treatment. Allan Border, and David Gower, better play- ers than Hollioake, were both effectively undermined.
Hollioake is an impressive person and his chance may yet come if he can establish a right to a Test place. John Craw- ley and Mark Ramprakash have the necessary intelligence but they would become feasible candidates only if they are able to develop the accompanying mental steel which is essential. In both cases they have to show that first as Test batsmen.
Atherton has to ask himself two searching questions: whether he has the stomach for undertaking not just a second tour as captain in the West Indies but also in Australia in 1998-99; and whether the captaincy is now affecting his batting.
A tempting little voice might suggest to him that if two of Australia's three main bowlers, Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Shane Warne, were to suffer the consequences of their own intensive programme between now and then, and England's key bowlers, Darren Gough, Andrew Caddick, Dean Headley, Robert Croft and Phil Tufnell, could all be kept fresh enough, the Ashes might yet be retrieved before the millennium, but it is more likely that they will not and there is no humane reason why Atherton should contemplate remaining the target of derision from ignorant quarters, which is the in- evitable fate of defeated captains.
He will resign, if he does, partly because of the bit- ter disappointment, as he put it on Saturday evening, of ``failing to take our chances when the crunch came'' and the de- cline of his own form as an opening batsman. Until his runs dried up in Zimbabwe there had been a dramatic improvement in his performances with the bat once he became captain. His recovery in New Zealand, however, has proved temporary. A single century for Lancashire against Leicestershire stands above a barren season. In the six Tests he scored 257 runs at an aver- age of 23.
He still averages 40.64 in his 73-match career and the average as captain, though reduced to 44.40, remains superior. Moreover, he has scored eight of his 11 Test hundreds since becoming captain. The empirical argument, that he would be more use to England as captain/batsman than purely as a batsman and senior professional, is out of date. England need him to play long innings and unless he is convinced that he has more chance of playing them with, rather than without, the additional weight of the captaincy, he should make way for Hussain.
There would be other possibilities, of course: Atherton could do one more tour, with Hussain being groomed to suc- ceed; or Stewart could captain and open the batting, with Jack Russell returning to keep wicket. Hussain, however, is the most likely captain in Australia in 1998-99 and now is probably the right time for him, especially as he has toured the West In- dies twice and knows the score.
Like Atherton, Hussain is 29 and his contributions as a vice-captain last winter confirmed the impression given when he captained the A side in Pakistan, that he has an abili- ty to read a match and take the right decisions quickly. He gave an unwisely timed newspaper interview after the Trent Bridge Test and there are doubts about his professed desire to be a hard cricketer, which the disputed catching of Greg Blewett at Old Trafford did nothing to dispel. I give him the benefit of the doubt on that. His career is on an upward curve, his appointment would give encouraging signals to the many Anglo-Asians in junior cricket and he is the best choice if Atherton decides to resign with a record of 12 Tests won, 16 lost and 18 drawn.
The main consolation after Saturday will be that, who- ever is captain, continuity is assured in team selection for the West Indies. The base party - with more to be added for the one-day games later - will come from the 11 who played at the Oval plus Russell, Gough, Headley, Croft, Crawley, Steve James and one all-rounder from a choice of Mark Ealham, Ben Hol- lioake, Dominic Cork and Dougie Brown.
The selectors will meet next Sunday, accompanied by Bob Bennett, chairman of the England committee and tour manager in the West Indies, and David Lloyd, the coach. The debate about who should succeed Atherton if he resigns will have to take into account not just the 3.5-month tour of the Caribbean, demanding enough in itself, but, without a break, the fierce challenge of a full series against South Africa at home next year, plus a Test against Sri Lanka for which England would not necessarily start favourites, and a triangular one-day tournament.
As things stand there will then barely be a pause be- fore the tour to Australia. If England are to have the remotest chance, the England Cricket Board must insist the start of the tour is delayed until mid-November, and the Test series until mid-December.