AUSTRALIA and England have both beaten South Africa, which suggests the Ashes series will be too close to call. However, I believe that unless Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie are all missing for the series, Australia will win comfortably.
All three have had major injury problems, but they expect to be fit for another tilt against England. The biggest doubt would be Gillespie, who has changed his action in deference to a back ailment and, as West Indies bowler Ian Bishop has discovered, this is a big hurdle to overcome. McGrath should be raring to go after the tour of Pakistan and do not be surprised if Warne (whose shoulder was sufficiently recovered to allow him to play golf this week) is available for the bulk of the series. Fully fit, the pair will enhance Australia's chances of retaining the Ashes, but their availability would leave England praying for a storm.
The England batsmen's inability to handle a bouncy Lord's pitch in the last two series leads me to that conclusion, along with the doubt that they have the attack to dismiss Australia cheaply on hard surfaces. There is a 'sameness' about an attack of Darren Gough, Dominic Cork and Angus Fraser and the first two have a tendency to underestimate the value of line and length when wickets are slow in coming. Yesterday's pummelling at the hands' of Sri Lanka's batsmen will not have helped, and in addition, England's spin bowling cupboard is even more bare than Australia's.
There is no doubt that England have improved since they lost the last Ashes series. The batting has a look of solidarity about it, especially if Graham Thorpe is fully recovered from his back problem. However, they still find ways to collapse occasionally, usually precipitated by a burst of good pace bowling or a spell of wizardry from Warne. The depth of the batting must also be in question if the likely replacements are John Crawley and Graeme Hick, despite their good form at the Oval. Nick Knight is worth persevering with as he has an aggressive outlook and a bit of character, in addition to an excellent record against pace bowling in the limited overs game.
While the attack is strong in right- arm pacemen (Dean Headley is a more than adequate reserve), it lacks a real spearhead for Australian conditions. If Gough continues to be injury prone this will become increasingly evident. If the right-arm pace bowlers do not get early wickets then England are in for some leather hunting, as any combination of Robert Croft, Ian Salisbury and Ashley Giles is hardly likely to keep a batsman awake at night unless he counts runs in preference to sheep.
Australia's batting will be strong and experienced. Greg Blewett's troubles with spin in India have left the No 3 spot open and hopefully the responsibility will return to Ricky Ponting. The Waughswill provide reliability in the middle order and Darren Lehmann, an aggressive left-hander, should be given a chance to show his wares. Blewett, with a fine record against England, and Justin Langer are good men to have in reserve.
The opening position has been volatile since they split the Mark Taylor-Michael Slater combination. Slater saved his career in the final Test in India by returning to the formula that made him successful - all out aggression. He may have been scarred when the selectors axed him, but even a diminished Slater is still a dangerous customer. Taylor also performed a 12th hour career-saving performance in England and while he is not back to his best, a century in each of his last three series suggests the run drought is over. Nevertheless, the position could remain in a state of flux if Matthew Elliott can unearth the form he displayed in England.
The bowling is varied and potent as long as the spearheads are fit and performing. The much improved Michael Kasprowicz and Damien Fleming, who has re-discovered his best form, provide good back up, but they would struggle if thrust into the lead role. Gavin Robertson and Stuart MacGill have displayed talent, but as apprentices they need to be accompanied by Warne.
The two teams will be well led, Alec Stewart showing by his approach in the first Test against South Africa that he is prepared to gamble to claim victory. England's best chance of winning is on a seaming pitch like the one at Edgbaston where they outpointed Australia. However, those conditions rarely prevail in Australia, a situation with which England have been familiar since 1986-87 and will remain so for a little longer.
The Winter Tour Parties
Probable Ashes party: M A Butcher, M A Atherton, N Hussain (vc), A J Stewart (capt), G P Thorpe, M R Ramprakash, J P Crawley, W Hegg, R D B Croft, P C R Tufnell, B C Hollioake, D G Cork, D Gough, A D Mullally, A R C Fraser, D W Headley and A J Tudor.
Possible ICC knock-out party: N V Knight, A D Brown, B Hollioake, G A Hick, M W Alleyne, V J Wells, A J Hollioake (capt), M A Ealham, M V Fleming, D R Brown, A F Giles, I D Austin, M P Bicknell and P J Martin.
Possible A tour party for South Africa and Zimbabwe: S P James (capt), D L Maddy, E T Smith, M B Loye, O A Shah, A Flintoff, S D Thomas, C M W Read, G P Swann, C P Schofield, P J Franks, G M Hamilton, G Chapple, P M Hutchison, S J Harmison and K J Dean.