Australia will retain the Ashes if they win the third Test, starting here tomorrow. Whether the pitch starts as wet as it was yesterday after a dousing by the groundsman, or as dry as the respected Les Burdett calculates it will be after two days of roasting in a temperature hovering around 100 degrees, England have a much better chance than they ever did on that pitch of ice-rink speed in Perth.
Their intervening match against Victoria has changed nothing, but it is just possible that Australian embarrassment surrounding their most commanding attacking player, Mark Waugh, will. He made the most felicitous of centuries on his first Test appearance for Australia here eight years ago but there has been an air of distraction about his batting in the first two Tests, despite his 111 runs at 55 so far.
His slip catching has been, as usual, superb and his bowling in the fourth innings at Brisbane was remarkably threatening considering how little he bowls. Knowing the mental tenacity both Waugh twins possess, it would be no great surprise if Mark were to banish his temporary notoriety over the betting scandal with a great innings.
England, however, will hope to exploit any unsettling effect of the sudden change in the tone of the normally adoring Australian press. Any sign of frailty from any of the top six batsmen might not be tolerated much longer with the likes of Greg Blewett, Darren Lehmann and Matthew Elliott waiting in the wings.
Another of the ambitious reserves, Adam Gilchrist, is standing by to take over from Ian Healy, should he not recover from a thigh strain.
England will no doubt want Robert Croft back in the side. Alec Stewart said, after noting with some surprise that the water on the pitch came over his boots before England's practice, that a decision would be left until tomorrow morning. Dominic Cork had to miss the nets with flu, which has more or less put paid to his fading chance of holding on to his place. If so, that still leaves a choice between five players - Croft, Alex Tudor, Dean Headley, John Crawley and Angus Fraser - for the last three England places.
With a match to win the selectors should go for five bowlers and they should be the ones in the best form, namely Darren Gough, Alan Mullally, Tudor, Headley and Croft. It is true, of course, that a draw would keep the series alive and that John Crawley played a fine second innings here four years ago in the match which England won, their eighth success on this ground to set against 13 Australian victories and five draws. With Mark Taylor in charge, however, draws involving Australia are rare and unless the weather intervenes a result is likely.
The 20-year-old Lancashire leg-spinner, Chris Schofield, was bowling as well as anyone at England's net practice yesterday, which was significant. The return of Stuart MacGill is fundamental to Australia's plans on a pitch which still appears to bear, below the surface, scars from footmarks made during a previous match. The authorities assured any doubters that it has not been used this season, but it would be surprising if Australia do not also include Colin Miller, their off-spin/swing bowler again, which would mean no place for one of the two bowlers who enjoyed the WACA so much, Jason Gillespie and Damien Fleming.
Glenn McGrath, of course, is an automatic choice and his supremacy over Mike Atherton will continue to give Australia a huge advantage: Atherton has been out 12 times to McGrath in his last 17 completed innings against Australia. Mark Butcher has so far played him better than anyone, but his slight groin injury still rules him out as an occasional supporting swing bowler, which leaves Stewart too short of bowling options in hot weather if he plumps for seven batsmen.
Croft would be batting a place too high at seven, but the tail-enders will simply have to bat with much more gumption. A specialist spinner is necessary because of the long straight boundaries (169 metres from north end to south), the tendency of Adelaide pitches to wear and the presence of two left-handers in Australia's top three. One of them, Justin Langer, may well return to county cricket as captain of Somerset next season.
His former captain at Middlesex, Mark Ramprakash, who has been marvellously consistent with the bat, has been lightly used as an off-spinner so far, and Graham Hick has not bowled a ball in a match since his arrival. He looks in great form with the bat and is catching reliably again at second slip.
England (from): Atherton, Butcher, Hussain, Stewart, Ramprakash, Hick, Crawley, Croft, Tudor, Gough, Mullally, Headley, Fraser.
Australia (from): Taylor, Slater, Langer, M Waugh, S Waugh, Ponting, Healy, MacGill, Miller, McGrath, Fleming, Gillespie.