After the championship of four-day matches began in 1993, a consistent pattern emerged. Usually, one of the top four would drop out of the race, but the remaining three teams would always last the pace, one of them finishing first.

Surrey, this year's leaders, have been prominent at halfway more often than any county. This is the fourth time they have tucked themselves into the top four in six years, but nobody at the Oval needs reminding that they have not won the title since 1971.

Only twice have the halfway leaders finished as champions - Middlesex in 1993 and Glamorgan last year - and even Warwickshire, in their dominant 1994 and '95 summers, did not pull ahead until August.

Surrey, who play Middlesex at Guildford's narrow rectangular ground tomorrow, should beat their London neighbours, but they face a second half of the season with a high number of enforced absences, especially if Ian Salisbury joins their crop of England players. Graham Thorpe faces a long lay-off with the disc problem in his back.

At the bottom end of the table the general trend suggests Warwickshire, Essex or Northamptonshire will finish last this season, which is an unpalatable probability for any of the three. Essex could become the first and only county to win the Benson and Hedges Cup and finish last in the championship the same season, something that has yet to happen in the NatWest Trophy too. An end-of-season placing of 16th is the lowest to date in both competitions.

Northamptonshire's game at Leicester, which starts today, should in theory offer a guide to the gap in standard between bottom and top. If Northants feel their lowly position is false, they have yet to prove otherwise.

Chris Lewis, Leicestershire's captain, has the job of keeping the losing Benson and Hedges Cup finalists on the right track after their Lord's disappointment.