Only if just about everything goes right in the next 11 weeks is there a chance that the ratings which put Australia top by a distance and England seventh out of the nine Test-playing countries will be proved wrong. England have to win tosses, catch half-chances, make big first-innings scores, keep their bowlers fit and bowl tightly to upset the best team in the world.
It could happen, but even if it does not, the vision of the revivalists at Lord's is that England will be back on top of that cricket world, for the first time since they went 26 games without defeat between 1968 and 1971, by the time they next visit Australia four years from now. The consequences of continued mediocrity would not be pleasant for the optimists beavering away in the open-plan offices of the striking glass building beside the Nursery ground at Lord's.
Television negotiations in a broadcasting scene which is about to be transformed by the possibilities of digital radio and television might be more an embarrassment than a triumph four years on, unless England start winning regularly again. Nine days ago, as Lord MacLaurin announced a £103 million television deal, an almost ethereal glow seemed to be shining from the ground-floor conference room. The entrepreneurial spirit was its cause: the national summer sport had taken another bold step down the path of progress.
But if the cricketers do not deliver what the marketing men envisage, the glow will be evanescent. In effect, the public is being asked to buy much more - seven Tests and 10 one-day internationals a season compared with six and three when the last television deal was done - of a product which has so far sold well more because of its scarcity value than its quality.
One should not overdo England's shortcomings during the Atherton years. There was much to enjoy and to admire and occasional striking victories to celebrate - not least against Australia at the Oval, in Adelaide and at Edgbaston - but consistent success was lacking and no one can be unaware of the fact, because it has been repeated so often, that this year's rise from the canvas to beat South Africa on a marginal points decision was the first win in a five-Test series for 12 years.
Ashley Mallett, Australia's off-spinner in Ian Chappell's outstanding side of the mid-1970s, says his countrymen are grateful that England are ``starting to get their act together''. He adds: ``Thank goodness we don't have to welcome another bunch of English losers for an Ashes series.''
Like rugby internationals, the battle in Australia will be won or lost up front. England eventually beat South Africa both because their luck changed at last, with a vengeance as far as marginal umpiring decisions were concerned, and because Mike Atherton and Mark Butcher managed to score just sufficient runs against Allan Donald and Shaun Pollock. England will have no hope unless they can see off the new ball more often than not this winter; every chance if they can.
By the same token, Darren Gough and Angus Fraser will have to have success with the new ball, not least against Mark Taylor, whose 426 runs in one Test in Peshawar last week have done no harm to his self-esteem. Under the cosh from the press at the start of the 1997 tour of England, when he had lost all confidence as a batsman, though not his sure touch as captain, Taylor has become almost as great a national sporting hero in Australia as his predecessor, Allan Border. Around him and the redoubtable Waugh brothers - all in the top 20 of The Cricketer's latest world ratings - Australia's selectors have to choose between Michael Slater, Justin Langer, Darren Lehmann, Ricky Ponting and Greg Blewett. Matthew Elliott, Michael Bevan, Andrew Symonds and others wait and hope.
Whether Ian Healy bats at six or seven, however, Australia have a tail to be exploited. So do England, but this time they have to make runs between seven and 11, one reason why Peter Philpott, the Australian leg-spin expert, has been recruited to help them during the tour. Bob Cottam's job as bowling coach will be to fine tune the actions of Gough, Fraser, Allan Mullally and Dominic Cork, who are likely to play in the first Test with Robert Croft as the preferred spinner, but one of David Lloyd's duties, as chief coach, will be to help his tailenders contribute with the bat as well.
``It needs a fully collective effort,'' he said before the team left on Wednesday. ``From seven to 11, we have to eke out as many runs as we can - 125 at least.''
'Eking out' will be necessary sometimes, no doubt, but so will putting bat to ball at the right time. The danger of a combination of England tour selectors comprising Lloyd, Alec Stewart, Nasser Hussain and the manager, Graham Gooch, is that they will be too inflexible and, if things should start to go wrong, too inclined to make excuses.
Hussain, restored as vice-captain, may be the freest thinker among them, but his formula for success is straightforward. ``We've got to stay with them all the way. Start well and compete throughout the series. The first innings is the key to all we do. If we get 400, it gives our bowlers a chance to put pressure on them. Our fitness and fielding got shown up in Australia last time but we've progressed a lot in those areas in the last couple of years. We still have a problem in that some of our quickest fielders are needed in the slips, but we'll work on total cricket.''
Hussain is the only one of England's seven specialist batsmen not to have been on a tour of Australia, though Mark Ramprakash joined the last one late and Butcher's previous trip was the A tour which confirmed him as a serious Test candidate. Butcher and Atherton finished first and second in the averages against South Africa, which bodes well, especially as Donald and Pollock were first and second in the bowling averages. Though he failed in England's subsequent humiliation at the hands of Sri Lanka, Butcher can point proudly to the fact that England won two of the three Tests in which he played against South Africa and had much the better of the other one, at Edgbaston.
Graham Thorpe, provided he is truly fit after his back operation, will provide a second left-hander in the top five, which can only be a help if Shane Warne returns and Stuart MacGill maintains the promise he showed in taking 14 wickets in his first two Tests against South Africa and Pakistan. Thorpe averages 49 against Australia, three of his six hundreds have been scored against them and he should return to four so that Stewart, whose prodigious energy must be sapped by captaining and keeping wicket in hot weather, can drop to five or six.
It looks as though Glenn McGrath and Jason Gillespie will be able to resume their new-ball partnership after serious injuries to them both (McGrath to his groin, Gillespie to his back) with Damien Fleming, Paul Reiffel and Mike Kasprowicz vying to support them. Two might miss selection if Warne is fit to resume alongside MacGill because England's continuing weakness against top-class spin, cruelly exposed again by Muttiah Muralitharan, will not have gone unnoticed by Australian selectors and groundsmen.
Colin Miller has done well in tough circumstances in Pakistan, and if a second spinner is needed, he is likely to continue as Warne's substitute until the champion's return. Miller is a gnarled and reliable cricketer with nothing to lose, a medium-pacer who turns to accurate off-spin when conditions suit, but England will have to get a lead before Warne reappears, probably on Boxing Day in Melbourne, where he took a hat-trick four years ago.
Australia will certainly be seriously disadvantaged if he does not do so in Brisbane, where he has prospered consistently apart from a relatively modest match against the West Indies (a mere four wickets in the match) after his last comeback two years ago. It followed the first of his two operations for wear and tear. The spinning finger went first, needing tendon surgery; the bowling shoulder second. His planned comeback for Victoria this week was postponed and the odds against him proving himself fit for the Gabba have accordingly mounted.
Both Atherton, undone by McGrath nine times in eight Tests but still the man Australia will be keenest to conquer, and Stewart, who needs to improve on a poor personal batting record against Australia if his confidence as a captain is not to be undermined, have said that they hope Warne plays. But the fact is that England's chances must be better the longer his return is delayed. He has taken 85 wickets at a cost of 23 runs each in 17 Tests against England; 313 in all from his 67 Tests for Australia.
If Warne and McGrath (42 wickets at 22 against England) are the key bowlers for Australia, the Gabba will be the gateway to the series. Only three times in the 16 Tests between the two countries has the result of the rubber been different from the result in Brisbane. England wanted to play the first Test of the series in Perth instead, leaving two Tests until the new year, but Simon Pack, who handled the tour negotiations for the England and Wales Cricket Board, thinks the compromise which emerged was a big improvement on recent tours. In particular, the separation between Tests and one-day internationals made sense for both countries.
``We tried to minimise the amount of travel and we have largely achieved that,'' said Pack. ``We would have preferred not to have two blocks of back-to-back Tests, but it wasn't an issue to die in a ditch over.''
The effect may be to give a chance to England's reserve fast bowlers, Dean Headley and the two who have their 21st birthdays early on the tour, Ben Hollioake and Alex Tudor. Hollioake is unlikely to start the series, given the fact that he, Mark Ealham and Andrew Flintoff, all playing as all-rounders, managed five wickets and 55 runs between them in five Tests last season. But he and Tudor, seriously quick and fully recovered from a stress fracture of his left shin, have a great chance to learn.
Whatever transpires in Australia, there can be no serious question that England teams are now operating in an environment altogether more conducive to success. The decision to employ Philpott as an adviser during the tour is just one example of the support the national side now receive.
The changes have been watched with perhaps a tinge of regret by Patrick Whittingdale, the city financial services expert who invested £3 million of his company's money in just the sort of back-up support - more expert coaching, better medical and fitness advice, pre-tour get-togethers, help with lifestyle, etc. - which Pack's international tours department at the ECB are now providing.
Looking back to the contract which ended three years ago when he finally lost patience with the old order, Whittingdale says: ``A lot of things are better now but too much was left undone for too long. I believe there is still too little man-management. To get the best out of young men you need regular personal reviews, advice and support. People like Ray Illingworth and Keith Fletcher honestly believed that an occasional chat on the edge of the boundary was sufficient. Ian MacLaurin built Tesco's up by strong management and team-building so he understood what was needed.''
Pack, the former NATO commander who is gaining gradual acceptance among those who thought his role superfluous at first, organised a week in the Lake District recently for the England A and under-19 teams, designed to build their confidence and team skills. Similar to the training given to the British Lions before their successful tour of South Africa, it was carefully designed to enable individuals on both teams to identify their personal strengths and weaknesses, to give them a shared sense of values and to equip them better for the life of a professional sportsman. We can expect an altogether more mature attitude from future England teams to public and media relations.
The approach of the tour party in Australia in this respect will be illuminating. Lloyd is on a final warning after his comments about Muralitharan. Stewart will set a responsible example, knowing that cricket has to hold its own, as the ECB chairman often puts it, ``in a competitive marketplace''.
MacLaurin has been the catalyst for the spate of recent decisions which may finally persuade cartoonists to put away their vision of an apoplectic colonel as the archetypal follower of English cricket. If the MCC vote to admit women members was symbolic, those to change county competitions and increase the programme of home Tests and internationals to a total of 17 each summer were strictly pragmatic. They paved the way for a TV deal which has left a feeling of unease in the public mind, for all the enthusiasm of the board and, naturally, Channel 4 and Sky Sports, the two companies who outbid the BBC.
England and Australia are the only countries who make money from Test cricket and the new chairman of the powerful England management committee, Brian Bolus, is one of many who believe that the reason is that until now international cricket in England has been sensibly rationed.
Bolus will tread warily at first when he takes over in January after defeating Bob Bennett by 11 votes to eight last week but he can be expected to keep a keen eye on what the ECB are spending and on the discipline and public relations of the England side. Above all, as a believer in the essential worth and attraction of county cricket, Bolus will want to stress the interdependence of England and the counties. He has no wish, he says, ``to drive any wedge between rich counties and the rest''.
Though a group of officials from Yorkshire, Lancashire, Warwickshire, Surrey and Notts have agreed to favour a two-division championship when the vote is taken in December, there are plenty of active thinkers who do not see this as a likely way to produce more English cricketers of genuine world class. Since those who make the international squad will in future be leased out to the board for large periods of the season - even this year, no regular England player managed more than Cork's 10 games for Derbyshire - the idea of an early-season regional competition involving the best England-qualified players may yet be the one which finds favour.
At least this time many changes have been agreed, and others discussed, before an England tour of Australia, not in the aftermath of defeat. That in itself is a pleasant change. An England side regaining the Ashes in Australia for the first time since 1971 would be an even more acceptable one.