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Alex Tudor is unlikely to play in the NatWest Trophy semi-final tie at Taunton today, an absence which should not undermine Surrey's chances of beating Somerset, but would certainly rule out a return to England colours for him next week.

Surrey were reluctant to risk the fast bowler's knee injury, leaving him without cricket for a month. In any case, it should be the off-spin of Saqlain Mushtaq that holds the key at Taunton, usually an unfriendly place for finger spinners.

Saqlain is probably the only spinner undeterred by the short boundaries that invite easy sixes into the St James churchyard or the River Tone. If he undermines Somerset as he did Northamptonshire in the last round, Surrey should win comfortably.

Somerset, with 13 wins in 14 games - including Surrey twice - have proved to be the strongest one-dayers on the circuit this summer and Jamie Cox, a captain revelling in the image of 'unknown Tasmanian', stands one match away from his first visit to Lord's.

Surrey, despite their bag of England batting stars, have a mediocre one-day record, but that has perked up noticeably since Saqlain rejoined them after the World Cup, having replaced Somerset's own Mushtaq Ahmed as spinner in the Pakistan side.

Adam Hollioake, Surrey's captain, said: ``Saqlain is an incredible bloke. He has come straight back into the side and is so focused.''

Somerset start as favourites today, even with Saqlain's threat. Their upturn is reminiscent of the Botham-Richards-Garner glory days of the early Eighties, and Cox is quite happy for his players to look towards reaching the final.

``I think it's a good idea to think about Lord's,'' he said yesterday. ``That's the dream that keeps us going. The guys are all inspired by the prospect of maybe playing there, including me. I've not played there before.''

He added: ``The Surrey game is vital for the club. We've had a winning run and we want to keep it going. We have terrific balance in the side all round. I do believe we've got some dynamic batsmen right down to nine or 10, a long way down, and there are a number of bowling options.''

In the other semi-final at Bristol tomorrow, Gloucestershire continue their run of meetings with Yorkshire, who they thrashed in the Benson and Hedges Super Cup at Lord's two weeks ago, having demolished them at Cheltenham two weeks before that.

Yorkshire have slipped into a trough with five defeats in their last six games, and there is no compelling reason why their suffering should not continue, though Gavin Hamilton, their England candidate, has recovered from a hamstring strain.

Gloucestershire would be more confident if they had not lost their last three one-day matches. Their Super Cup success was their first Lord's final since 1977. Now they are on the verge of another.