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The Electronic Telegraph Duckworth and Lewis just want to be understood
Charles Randall - 14 May 1999

The inventors of the Duckworth-Lewis method have made a plea to the media and public before the World Cup: ``Give our system a fair chance.''

An International Cricket Council panel, headed by Sir Clyde Walcott, discussed the British method at Lord's yesterday and they are to recommend that the device, which sets fair targets in the event of rain interruption, be accepted into worldwide match regulations.

The 70-page book Your Comprehensive Guide to the Duckworth-Lewis Method (West of England University: £5.95) is already in the shops and will no doubt sit comfortably on the shelf next to Fermat's Last Theorem and Roget's Thesaurus. Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis, two mathematics experts living in Gloucestershire, might then see a modest financial return from the copyright, which would be some compensation for several years of effort and expense.

Their method, which from this season includes provision for a tie, has been used in most countries for more than two years and is accepted by players and authorities as the best way of settling matches, though it has been frequently ridiculed by the media, especially when apparent anomalies crop up.

Duckworth conceded that it helped to be ``thick-skinned'' about the method. He said: ``I'm not hurt by the criticisms, not at all, but I'm disappointed that people report with words like 'indecipherable' or 'improbable' or 'intricate'.

``The method is not intricate at all if anyone has made any effort to understand it. We've offered press conferences via the England Cricket Board, but as far as we know they've never been taken up.

``We often get the impression that some people in the press prefer not to understand so they can pretend to be confused. We're monitoring the method on every occasion.''

The two Lancastrians were drawn together by their mathematics background and a common goal. The catalyst was the public relations disaster during a 1992 World Cup semi-final in Sydney, when calculations after rain left South Africa needing 21 runs to beat England off one ball.

Lewis, a mathematics lecturer at West of England University in Bristol, was watching the match on television and the incident left a strong impression. It was shortly afterwards that he learnt through a colleague about mathematical possibilities on this subject presented by a certain Frank Duckworth at the Royal Statistical Society's annual conference in Sheffield. He started a student project, analysing the pattern of all past one-day internationals before making contact with Duckworth.

Patterns emerged, and Lewis said: ``The method has got an awful lot of academic credence - very firm mathematical foundations, although these aren't necessarily understood by the persons who use it. Academics recognise that what we have done is to 'model' the relationship between runs, wickets and overs.''

Lewis, 57, has become one of the most talked-about names in cricket, though not at Chipping Sodbury Golf Club, where, as a 13-handicapper, he is just another member. ``I don't like to say who I am unless the D-L method crops up in conversation,'' said Lewis. `` 'Oh, you're not THAT Lewis, surely'.''

Similarly, Duckworth, 58, thought he was enjoying quiet retirement at the family cottage near Dursley. After his career as a statistical analyst in the nuclear power industry he edits the Royal Statistical Society newsletter, but nursing the D-L Method has taken up an increasing amount of time.

The key to understanding the method is ``resources lost'' - a combination of wickets in hand and the number of overs lost to rain, expressed as a percentage.

The calculations involve head-scratching and brief use of a calculator after reference to the correct set of tables. As the medieval maxim goes: ``Let justice be done though the heavens fall.''


Source: The Electronic Telegraph
Editorial comments can be sent to The Electronic Telegraph at et@telegraph.co.uk