By Karthik K Ramamurthy

Ramamurthyk@usa.net

If New Zealand beat Scotland -- as they are expected to -- on 31^st May, the Australians, the West Indians and New Zealand will all have 6 points each from 5 matches, causing a 3-way tie. In this situation, according to the World Cup '99 Pla ying Conditions, Net Run Rate (NRR) will decide which of the 3 teams go through to the Super Six stage of the competition.

The Points Table of these three teams at the end of the Manchester match:

The comfortable Aussie victory over the West Indies at Manchester on 30^th May 1999 means they have a better NRR (+0.7315) run rate then the Windies (+0.4973), and have thus ensured for themselves a berth in the next stage of the World Cup. - - the Super Six.

Even if New Zealand wins so comfortably that they end up with a better NRR than Australia, the Australians will qualify ahead of the West Indies

Brian Lara's men will be hoping that the Scots will perform well, beating the Kiwis. If that seemingly impossible task is not achieved, the West Indies will hope that the Scots at least don't allow the New Zealanders to improve their Net Run Rate beyon d 0.4973 -- the West Indies' Net Run Rate (NRR) at the end of five matches.

There are two different scenarios:

1. If Scotland Bats First.

In this situation, New Zealand will have to reach their victory target with plenty of overs to spare. Assuming the Scots will not score less than 34 runs (half their score against the West Indies) or more than 349, the following table provides details of the number of overs and balls within which New Zealand must reach their target.

As can be seen from this table, New Zealand's best bet is to bowl out the Scots for around 115 runs, and reach the victory target in 21 overs, scoring at a reasonable run rate of 5.47 runs per over.

The more the runs the New Zealanders give away, the tougher their task becomes.

For example, if the Scots score 150, the Kiwis must score at 6.622 runs per over, if the Scots score 200, the Kiwis must achieve a rate of 8.122 r.p.o., and if they give away 250 runs, they must score at a difficult 9.418 runs per over to reach the Sup er Six

If the Scots put up a total in this range (whether they are bowled out, or not)			The Kiwis must reach the victory target in this many overs and deliveries		At a Run Rate of	To achieve this NRR, and pip the West Indies for a place in the Super Six
33	&	35	17	0	2.0000	0.4978
36	&	38	17	1	2.1553	0.4977
39	&	41	17	2	2.3077	0.4975
42	&	45	17	3	2.4571	0.4974
46	&	48	17	4	2.6604	0.4982
49	&	51	17	5	2.8037	0.4980
52	&	54	18	0	2.9444	0.4978
55	&	58	18	1	3.0826	0.4976
59	&	61	18	2	3.2727	0.4983
62	&	64	18	3	3.4054	0.4980
65	&	67	18	4	3.5357	0.4977
68	&	71	18	5	3.6637	0.4974
72	&	74	19	0	3.8421	0.4980
75	&	78	19	1	3.9652	0.4976
79	&	81	19	2	4.1379	0.4982
82	&	84	19	3	4.2564	0.4978
85	&	88	19	4	4.3729	0.4974
89	&	91	19	5	4.5378	0.4979
92	&	95	20	0	4.6500	0.4974
96	&	99	20	1	4.8099	0.4978
100	&	102	20	2	4.9672	0.4983
103	&	106	20	3	5.0732	0.4977
107	&	109	20	4	5.2258	0.4981
110	&	113	20	5	5.3280	0.4975
114	&	117	21	0	5.4762	0.4978
118	&	120	21	1	5.6220	0.4981
121	&	124	21	2	5.7188	0.4975
125	&	128	21	3	5.8605	0.4977
129	&	132	21	4	6.0000	0.4979
133	&	136	21	5	6.1374	0.4981
137	&	139	22	0	6.2727	0.4982
140	&	143	22	1	6.3609	0.4975
144	&	147	22	2	6.4925	0.4976
148	&	151	22	3	6.6222	0.4976
152	&	155	22	4	6.7500	0.4977
156	&	159	22	5	6.8759	0.4977
160	&	163	23	0	7.0000	0.4977
164	&	167	23	1	7.1223	0.4977
168	&	171	23	2	7.2429	0.4976
172	&	175	23	3	7.3617	0.4975
176	&	180	23	4	7.4789	0.4974
181	&	184	23	5	7.6364	0.4981
185	&	188	24	0	7.7500	0.4980
189	&	192	24	1	7.8621	0.4978
193	&	197	24	2	7.9726	0.4975
198	&	201	24	3	8.1224	0.4981
202	&	205	24	4	8.2297	0.4978
206	&	210	24	5	8.3356	0.4975
211	&	214	25	0	8.4800	0.4980
215	&	219	25	1	8.5828	0.4977
220	&	223	25	2	8.7237	0.4981
224	&	228	25	3	8.8235	0.4977
229	&	232	25	4	8.9610	0.4980
233	&	237	25	5	9.0581	0.4976
238	&	242	26	0	9.1923	0.4979
243	&	246	26	1	9.3248	0.4981
247	&	251	26	2	9.4177	0.4976
252	&	256	26	3	9.5472	0.4978
257	&	261	26	4	9.6750	0.4979
262	&	265	26	5	9.8012	0.4981
266	&	270	27	0	9.8889	0.4974
271	&	275	27	1	10.0123	0.4975
276	&	280	27	2	10.1341	0.4975
281	&	285	27	3	10.2545	0.4975
286	&	290	27	4	10.3735	0.4975
291	&	296	27	5	10.4910	0.4974
297	&	301	28	0	10.6429	0.4981
302	&	306	28	1	10.7574	0.4979
307	&	311	28	2	10.8706	0.4978
312	&	322	28	3	10.9825	0.4976
323	&	327	28	5	11.2370	0.4978
328	&	333	29	0	11.3448	0.4975
334	&	338	29	1	11.4857	0.4979
339	&	344	29	2	11.5909	0.4976
345	&	349	29	3	11.7288	0.4979

 

2. If New Zealand Bat First

In this situation, Stephen Fleming's men must aim to put up a big total, and bundle out the Scots for very little.

The following table provides the minimum margin of victory for new Zeadlad for any score of theirs in the range from 164 to 426.

Since it would be very difficult to bowl the Scots out for a score of around 40, the ideal scenario for New Zealand would be to score around 275, and then try and bowl out the Scots for around 150.

The less New Zealand score, the more difficult their task would become.