Even if the match situation were a little more even going into the fifth and final day, Steve Waugh would not be doing any favours to the New Zealanders this time around. In two of their past three Tests – the fourth against England at Headingley and the first against the Kiwis at Brisbane – the Australians made declarations which gave the opposition a chance of snatching a win. England did, New Zealand just fell short.

But at Leeds, Australia already had the Ashes series in the bag, leading 3-0 going into the fourth match. And although this series against New Zealand is only a three-match affair, Waugh was prepared to take a few risks at Brisbane, confident first that his side could prevent the Kiwis triumphing and secondly that the Australians would be good enough to win the series from 1-0 down should they lose.

Given the weather at Hobart, that second expression of confidence would have been a little too bold. But if Waugh were to do the same at Hobart and lose, Australia could only draw the series with a win at Perth. Having beaten New Zealand 1-0 in 1997-98, they would lose a point in the ICC Test Championship. Plus Waugh knows that of all the venues in Australia, Perth is the most alien and therefore the most challenging for visiting teams.

With a pace attack of Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Brett Lee, and the Kiwis' attack heavily depleted by injuries, Australia certainly have the firepower to exploit Perth's unique conditions.

For overseas players who – South Africa aside – play their home cricket on slower, lower pitches, Perth can be like another planet. When England arrived in Perth at the start of their 1990-91 tour, a group wandered out to the square for a first look at the famous pitch. Celebrated tailender Phil Tufnell took block and pretended to move into a hook shot. He missed, took a savage blow to the head and crumpled in a heap. Welcome to the WACA, boys.

Despite inclement weather spoiling the first two Tests, it is hard to see enough rain falling in Perth to spoil another match in this soggy series. Australia's pace attack and their home-ground advantage should be enough. What is less likely is a fine day in Hobart tomorrow, and Australia taking 16 wickets to win.

Mark Ray has covered Australian cricket since 1987 and is also the author of a number of books on the game.

Day 1: Already out of sight
Day 2: Punter makes a case for the captaincy
Day 3: NZ struggling to stay afloat

© Wisden CricInfo Ltd