Tuesday, February 5, 2002 Back in the 1930s a bunch of Queensland farmers hit on the bright idea of importing cane-toads from Hawaii to eliminate the menace of the greyback beetle, which was laying waste to sugar-cane crops up and down the land. The bonus-point system was imported from Australia's ING Cup with a similar principle in mind: to eliminate the menace of dull, aimless limited-overs games; to introduce meaning into matches where hitherto there had been none.

The cane-toad fuelled high hopes but ultimately failed in its mission, and has since triggered an ecological catastrophe undreamed of by its backers. The same goes for the bonus-point system. For a couple of weeks it breathed new life into a moribund competition. Ultimately, though, it proved an agent of match-fixing, as highlighted by Stephen Fleming and Shaun Pollock's defensive but inevitable go-slow tactics. It also had the less distressing, though more surprising, impact of crossing the host's name off the guest list for their own party.

Cricket fans can only hope the bonus point - as it stands - proves easier to get rid of than the cane-toad, which is still killing off vast numbers of Australia's native fauna. But there is a moral to the story of the cane-toad: Australia cannot afford to be complacent about the kind of creatures it invites into its wilderness. The bonus-point system has taught Australia an equally salient lesson: it cannot afford to be complacent about its defence of the 2003 World Cup.

The wheels have started falling off Australia's one-day bandwagon one year too late. Thirteen months out from the World Cup, now is the time for fine-tuning and carrying out routine checks - not for discovering chronic engine trouble.

Australia's selectors must react accordingly. They cannot afford to do nothing, as they found out the last time they defended a World Cup, in 1992, when Allan Border's slow-thinking geriatrics were outwitted by faster, snappier rivals from afar. But neither can they afford, at this late stage, to kick out the whole squad and bring in a new one.

Rather than turn their world upside-down, Australia must turn their batting order upside-down. South Africa and New Zealand have prospered by conventional means: solid opening stands and withering middle-order assaults. Australia, meanwhile, have been pitiful at the top and lacked punch in the middle. Now is the time to go back to the future. Matthew Hayden, ferociously efficient at domestic one-day level, should be paired with Damien Martyn, who in five matches for Australia as an opener has plundered two centuries and 364 runs at 182.

Darren Lehmann should combine with Michael Bevan and Adam Gilchrist to give Australia an imposing belly. It is here, from Nos 4 to 6, where the World Cup may be won or lost. Ricky Ponting gets squeezed out after an indifferent summer, but he'll keep the others on their toes and make a handy sub fielder. Bits-and-pieces men are yesterday's men, so it's out with Ian Harvey and Andrew Symonds - who in 86 matches between them have contributed only 85 wickets and two half-centuries - and in with Shane Watson.

As for the bowling, Australia boasts one of history's classic quartets: Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie, Brett Lee, Shane Warne. Why they are not given the chance to do in 50 overs what they repeatedly manage in five days is a secret known only to Trevor Hohns and his closest pals. It is a myth in search of a stick of dynamite.

Which brings us, finally, to the tricky bit: the captaincy. Steve Waugh is already fending off questions about his future with the same anxiety he has reserved of late for Craig McMillan's half-baked bouncers. Now is probably the right time to jettison his brother Mark, but as countless military commanders might have told their deputies: "To lose one Waugh would be a blow. To lose two would be a disaster."

At present, Steve is Australia's weakest link. With the ball he is not up to scratch. With the bat he has lacked the vigour a No. 5 needs either to speed up the run rate or shore up a faltering top order. Strangely, his salvation might come at No. 3, his final unconquered frontier, where his bloody-mindedness suddenly seems the ideal antidote to Australia's top-order queasiness. Physically, too, he is surely up to the task; one-day bowlers get away with a bouncer an over these days but still lack the freedom to give Waugh the thorough going-over which the world's Test attacks did during his hazardous sojourn at first-drop a decade ago.

Anyway, without Steve Waugh, who would captain Australia in the World Cup? Ponting? Gilchrist? By far the best alternative is Warne. He could have been a great Australian captain; for a month, during the 1998-99 World Series, he probably was. But giving him the job now would smack of panic. It might be putting faith in one Warne miracle too many - and this from a man who will be relied on to take 3 for 35 every time he loosens his right wrist.

Better, surely, to tinker with a couple of trouble spots but stand by the core of a team that only eight months ago was elevating limited-overs mastery to a new plane. Better, too, to be thankful that the cracks are appearing now rather than this time next year. It is always handy to know what you're letting yourself in for, as the tale of the cane-toad goes to show.

My World Cup XI 1 Matthew Hayden, 2 Damien Martyn, 3 Steve Waugh (capt), 4 Darren Lehmann, 5 Michael Bevan, 6 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 7 Shane Watson, 8 Brett Lee, 9 Shane Warne, 10 Jason Gillespie, 11 Glenn McGrath.

Chris Ryan is former managing editor of Wisden Cricket Monthly and a former Darwin correspondent of the Melbourne Age.

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