It barely seems like yesterday that England were fighting back in India, and New Zealand upsetting the Aussies on their own patch. But international cricket's treadmill stops for no-one these days, and whoever adapts fastest to the change of scene – England have to get used to more bounce, New Zealand to less – should win this best-of-five series. In the global village, acclimatisation is for wimps. Had New Zealand laid their South African bogey to rest and won the VB Series, they would have started as favourites. But five successive defeats have dented the confidence generated by three wins out of four against Australia, and instead it's England, still buoyant after upsetting the odds at Delhi and Mumbai, who begin the perkier.

On England's last visit here, in 1996-97, another five-match series actually finished all-square thanks to a tie in the third game. There's not much between the sides this time either. Even the personnel bear comparison. Both teams have an explosive opener (Marcus Trescothick, Nathan Astle); a combative captain who bats at No. 3 (Nasser Hussain, Stephen Fleming); a technically sound middle-order batsman who would be at home opening the innings (Michael Vaughan, Lou Vincent); a matchwinning allrounder (Andy Flintoff, Chris Cairns); and a canny left-arm spinner (Ashley Giles, Daniel Vettori). And both sides make the most of limited resources. The series could come down to a battle of wits between Hussain and Fleming.

New Zealand's selection had appeared straightforward after they named a 12-man squad on Sunday, but on Monday afternoon local time they were rocked by the news that Shane Bond, the policeman-turned-paceman who set the VB Series alight, would be out for about six weeks with an injury to his left ankle. His replacement will be the fast bowler Ian Butler, 20, who made Hussain's life uncomfortable for a while during England's second warm-up game against Northern Districts.

And they have worries too at the other end of the order. In 10 games in Australia, New Zealand's openers – they tried four different combinations – added on average a rabbit-like 8.50. The introduction of Chris Nevin, the wicketkeeper from Wellington, will make it six different pairings in 12 ODIs. If England can expose the middle order to the new ball, they could be in business. But Nevin does solve one problem: by shunting the other batsmen down a position, he takes some of the pressure off Cairns and Chris Harris, who were a place too high at Nos 5 and 6.

After Sunday's win over ND, Duncan Fletcher hinted that England would field the same side at Christchurch that silenced the Mumbai masses. That means that Andy Caddick would retain his place despite two anodyne performances at Hamilton, while Vaughan would edge out Owais Shah, who kept his head on Sunday while others were losing theirs.

Keeping calm under pressure will be the key. But it will be a different kind of pressure from the one England experienced in India. There it was about playing in front of 40,000 fanatics and taming a devastating pair of opening batsmen. Here it will be about milking Harris, muffling Cairns, and moderating McMillan. Battles within battles, and with the World Cup just a year away, this is one war England need to win.

Probable teams
New Zealand 1 Nathan Astle, 2 Chris Nevin (wk), 3 Stephen Fleming (capt), 4 Craig McMillan, 5 Lou Vincent, 6 Chris Cairns, 7 Chris Harris, 8 Andre Adams, 9 Daniel Vettori, 10 Daryl Tuffey, 11 Ian Butler.

England 1 Marcus Trescothick, 2 Nick Knight, 3 Nasser Hussai (capt), 4 Graham Thorpe, 5 Michael Vaughan, 6 Paul Collingwood, 7 Andrew Flintoff, 8 James Foster, 9 Ashley Giles, 10 Andy Caddick, 11 Darren Gough.

Lawrence Booth is assistant editor of Wisden.com. His reports will appear throughout the tour.

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