The news that Chris Cairns is a doubtful starter for Tuesday's crucial VB Series match against Australia will come as a relief to the struggling home side. Cairns is struggling to overcome a disc injury, and is undergoing intensive physiotherapy on his back. "He's probably ginger, that would be the best word to describe it," said New Zealand captain Stephen Fleming. "We'll be cautious with him. I'm not willing to commit whether he'll be playing or not. There's work to be done and time to be taken. We'll use it."

Fleming added that he would be "conservative" with his selection - an indication that he is willing to rest one of his key players for a match they can afford to lose. Another option would be to play Cairns as a batsman. That decision aisde, the only likely change is that Dion Nash will return at the expense of James Franklin.

Australia, who begun the tournament with a much-maligned rotation policy, no longer have the option of resting key players. Four defeats have left them in a position where they need to win both their remaining games to have a realistic chance of securing a place in the final.

"It's just a matter of picking the side," said Steve Waugh. "I don't want it to get too complicated. Alternative rotation, alternative injury, alternative form. We're just picking 11 players, we'll keep it simple." Australia are likely to bring in Brett Lee for Jason Gillespie and Ian Harvey for Andrew Symonds. The changes are not squad rotation, more desperation as they try to end their current dismal run.

What will concern Waugh is that in Australia's previous three meetings with New Zealand, all of which they have lost, they have failed to bat out their allocation of overs. Attacking from the off is all very well, but it has not worked so far in this series, and both their first-choice openers, Adam Gilchrist and Mark Waugh, have struggled for form. Gilchrist has managed 52 runs in four innings and Waugh 71 runs in five. To add to their troubles their usually reliable fielding has let them down. In Saturday's defeat at Adelaide the Aussies dropped two catches and missed two straightforward run-out attempts.

Waugh remains publicly upbeat. "We know we can turn it around, you'll see a side out there desperate to win, but relaxed as well and confident in its ability," he said. "If we don't win tomorrow, we're not good enough. I don't mind losing as we go down to the wire."

While the Australian Cricket Board will be keeping a close eye on events in the middle, they will also be watching the spectators. The opening games at the MCG a fortnight ago were marred by crowd trouble, with over 400 people being evicted from the ground. There was further unrest at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday. Australia's problems on the field might be no more than a temporary aberration, but the unsavoury scenes which seem to be becoming more prevalent outside the boundary threaten to tarnish the game far more than the national team failing to reach the series finals.

Teams
Australia (probable): 1 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 2 Mark Waugh, 3 Ricky Ponting, 4 Damien Martyn, 5 Steve Waugh (capt), 6 Michael Bevan, 7 Ian Harvey, 8 Shane Warne, 9 Brett Lee, 10 Andy Bichel, 11 Glenn McGrath.

New Zealand (probable): 1 Brendon McCullum, 2 Nathan Astle, 3 Lou Vincent, 4 Stephen Fleming (capt), 5 Craig McMillan, 6 Chris Cairns, 7 Chris Harris, 8 Adam Parore (wk), 9 Daniel Vettori, 10 Dion Nash, 11 Shane Bond.

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