Not this time. Australia's recovery from the brink of almost certain elimination at Melbourne today has left the VB Series in the melting pot. New Zealand lead with 17 points, while Australia and South Africa have 13. Even the bonus points have been evenly shared - just the one each.

There are two games remaining, both at Perth: South Africa v New Zealand on Friday, and South Africa v Australia on Sunday. To take quite a likely scenario, if South Africa beat New Zealand and lose to Australia - and no bonus points are claimed - all three teams will be equal on 17 points. Thankfully cricket has no recourse to drawing lots, and net run-rate would decide who qualifies.

Australia's is the best at the moment (0.102), thanks mainly to their eight-wicket mauling of South Africa, completed with 30 overs to spare, in match seven at Sydney. As a result South Africa's net run-rate is comfortably the worst (-0.155), with New Zealand (0.016) somewhere in between. If all three sides finish on 17 points, South Africa will almost certainly be eliminated.

But that's just one scenario. Two matches means many permutations:

Whichever way you look at it, it makes a refreshing change from last year's triangular series, when Australia won all 10 matches they played, and West Indies and Zimbabwe blundered around trying to secure the right to be pummelled by the Aussies in the final.

Rob Smyth is on the staff of Wisden.com

Current standings p w l bp pts nrr 1 NZ 7 4 3 1 17 +0.016 2 Aus 7 3 4 1 13 +0.102 3 SA 6 3 3 1 13 -0.155

How the points system works
Wisden ODI table

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