Ten weeks ago, as Nasser Hussain and Duncan Fletcher plotted an Ashes campaign around the panache and knowhow of Graham Thorpe and the strapping allround ability of Andrew Flintoff, you'd have got long odds on Robert Key and Richard Dawson finding a place in the team for the second Test. But with Thorpe back in England and Flintoff and Ashley Giles joining the growing ranks of the frail-bodied, both Key and Dawson - nowhere in the big picture at the start of the series - are certainties for the Adelaide Test, along with Craig White, who has so distinguished himself in matches against Australia.

Key is the in-form, unscarred square peg, fresh from his match-saving 174 not out at Hobart. He could not be playing much better, and does not have the defeatist air of a man who has been scarred by repeated humiliations against the Aussies. He may get in anyway, of course, if John Crawley's hip injury continues to bother him.

With Flintoff and Giles off Hussain's bowling wish-list, England will need Mark Butcher and Michael Vaughan to fill in a few overs. After Giles's unfortunate wrist injury, Andy Caddick is the only certainty in the bowling department, although Dawson is likely to be pushed, blinking, into the Adelaide sun - rather as Peter Such was on the last tour, when he responded with 3 for 99 in 38 overs. Steve Harmison is likely to be the beneficiary of England's obsession with raw pace, despite a toothless start to the tour: he's taken only three wickets in 60 overs, and Ricky Ponting's knees won't be trembling just yet.

The other key decision concerns Matthew Hoggard, who bowled wretchedly at Brisbane and looked devoid of any fortitude, mettle, or sense of the right length for Australian pitches. Few people would have thought that the bowler of the season - as Hoggard was voted in Wisden Cricket Monthly's recent Readers' Poll - would be under pressure for his place so soon, but he is.

There are two contrasting precedents here. One is Angus Fraser - WCM readers' bowler and player of the season in 1998, before England's last Ashes tour - who was dropped after one Test. The other is Hoggard last summer. He started dismally against Sri Lanka at Lord's, but returned to take 12 wickets in the last two Tests and bowl England to a series win.

Hoggard's hangdog look and apologetic gait hides a resolute character. Many feel that, like Fraser four years ago, he is toothless if the ball isn't moving, but it hardly went off the straight in India a year ago and Hoggard was still England's outstanding bowler. He has earned the right to another chance, but don't discount a sixth Test cap for Chris Silverwood. He was thrown in at the deep end after no first-class matches in South Africa three years ago. If only because everyone else has bowled so wretchedly, the same could happen again.

For Australia, the picture is a lot clearer, as it tends to be when you win by 384 runs. Assuming that Jason Gillespie is passed fit, it boils down once again to Andy Bichel or Brett Lee. Bichel did nothing wrong at Brisbane, but Australia will want to catapult Lee onto the Perth trampoline, so a good performance from Bichel here might complicate the issue. However, it is, as the cliché goes, the nicest of problems.

One dilemma neither captain has is over what to do at the toss. At Adelaide you bat first ... and bat and bat. It is the best pitch in Australia by a street, and in 60 Tests here teams have fielded first only eight times. As six of them ended up losing, it's clear what Nasser Hussain and Steve Waugh will do.

What can also realistically be discounted, in spite of a probable shirtfront, is a draw. Just as tabloid editors don't do paeans to Myra Hindley, so Australia simply do not do draws any more: they have had only one non-rain-affected draw in their last 48 Tests. Speed kills, and the remorseless pace at which Australia play the game has wiped out the bore draw from Test cricket's dictionary.

So it's win or bust, and history is not on England's side. In Australia's run of seven consecutive Ashes wins, they've won the second Test six times. The exception was the rain-affected draw in 1997, and even then England were bowled out for 77.

There is some good news for England, though. In the last 15 years there is one Test that they've never lost, in which they have a proud record of two wins and one draw. The catch? It's the sixth Test.

Teams
Australia(probable)
1 Matthew Hayden, 2 Justin Langer, 3 Ricky Ponting, 4 Damien Martyn, 5 Steve Waugh (capt), 6 Darren Lehmann, 7 Adam Gilchrist (wk), 8 Shane Warne, 9 Andy Bichel, 10 Jason Gillespie, 11 Glenn McGrath.

England(probable)
1 Michael Vaughan, 2 Marcus Trescothick, 3 Mark Butcher, 4 Nasser Hussain (capt), 5 John Crawley (or Robert Key), 6 Alec Stewart (wk), 7 Craig White, 8 Richard Dawson, 9 Andrew Caddick, 10 Matthew Hoggard, 11 Steve Harmison.

Rob Smyth is assistant editor of Wisden.com.

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